Mortgage markets posted four good days last week and one awful one.  Unfortunately for rate shoppers in Washington , that one bad day outweighed the gains of the other four and mortgage rates worsened on the week overall.

Despite re-touching all-time lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, Conforming and FHA mortgage rates moved higher on the week.

There wasn’t much domestic data on which for mortgage markets to move so rates took their cues from global economic activity. Strong data from Japan and China, plus an improving outlook from the Eurozone, sparked optimism among Wall Street investors. Cash poured into the stock market and it happened at the expense of bonds — including the mortgage-backed ones.

It’s the primary reasons rates rose and not even the worst Retail Sales report in 8 months could undue the damage.

Often, weak Retail Sales data causes mortgage rates to fall. Last week, however, that wasn’t the case.

This week, there’s cause for rates to rise again with Wednesday emerging as a “data day”.

First, at 8:30 AM ET, the government releases two key housing statistics and one major gauge for inflation — Housing Starts, Building Permits and Producer Price Index, respectively.  Strength in any or all three should lead mortgage rates higher.

Then, at 5:45 PM ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke makes a public speech and anytime Bernanke speaks, mortgage rates can move.

Mortgage rates remain unnaturally low and a lot of Americans have taken advantage already. If you’re a homeowner and you’ve wondered whether or not a refinance makes sense, talk to your loan officer straight away. Low rates like this can’t last forever so lock one in while you can.

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Conforming and FHA mortgage rates rose for the first time in 5 weeks, pulling mortgage pricing off its best levels of the year.

The best mortgage rates of last week were locked Tuesday morning.

This week, mortgage rates may rise even more. In addition to the release of May’s jobs report and consumer confidence data, fears of broader economic slowdown appear to be easing.

Day-by-day, the chances of rates rising are real.

On Tuesday, a consumer confidence survey is released. Consumer confidence is linked to economic growth because 70 percent of the economy is based in consumer spending. In theory, as consumer confidence grows, the economy should, too.

Therefore, a strong reading should push mortgage rates higher.

Then, on Wednesday, Pending Home Sales and Auto Sales data is released for last month. Both items are “big ticket” and, again, reflect on consumer confidence. Strong readings should be rough on rates.

Next, on Thursday, jobless claims data hits the wires along with worker productivity stats.  Normally, these two releases don’t carry much weight, but with the jobs market in focus this year, markets will be watching for clues about Friday‘s big report — the May Non-Farm Payrolls.

Anything can happen when the jobs report is released.

In April, an estimated 290,000 jobs were created and, in May, economists think more than a half-million people re-entered the workforce.  This is good for the economy, of course, but can drag on mortgage rates.  If job growth even comes close to the 500,000 marker, mortgage rates could zoom higher.

Mortgage rates moved higher last week but are still very low. If you’ve been thinking about refinancing your mortgage, you probably shouldn’t put it off much longer.  Talk to your loan officer today — the longer you wait, the more that rates can rise.

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Between Monday to Thursday, Wall Street focused on the upcoming jobs reports and mortgage markets gained while traders jockeyed for position. Mortgage rates drifted lower through Thursday afternoon. But, then, after a better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report Friday morning, mortgage markets — and mortgage rates — reversed.

Overall, mortgage rates dropped last week, but only by a small margin. Rates were best Thursday afternoon.

It was the second consecutive week in which mortgage rates fell.

Last week was also interesting in that both stock markets and bond markets improved, proving that rates don’t always rise when stock prices do. 455 of the S&P 500 companies posted gains last week.

If you’re shopping for a home or a refinance, though, don’t rest on your laurels. After Friday’s big sell-off, this week opens into a major headwind and, plus, the Federal Reserve‘s support for mortgage markets ends in just 3 weeks.

This week, without much data to influence traders, the upward momentum in rates may have little cause to temper. We’ll see the Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Friday. Beyond that, there’s not much else.

After last week’s performance, conforming mortgage rates may be poised to rise rather sharply. If you’re waiting for the right time to lock your rate, it may have been this past Thursday. Consider locking your rate early this week to protect against further rate hikes.

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Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government’s monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street will be watching it closely.

Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.

Jobs are an important part of the nation’s recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don’t spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.

When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.

Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds.  Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.

Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday’s mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you’re worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.

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Mortgage rates are now at a 6-week low but probably shouldn’t be.  It underscores just how important global events can be to U.S. mortgage markets.

For example, corporate earnings continue to improve and key elements of the economy are strengthening.  Even the Federal Reserve acknowledges this.  In most circumstances, that would be a boon for the stock markets and bond markets would suffer, including mortgage bonds.

Last week, that wasn’t the case.

Early in the week, as (1) China tightened its monetary policy, (2) Greece did little to quell lingering default fears, and (3) Spain raised its deficit forecasts, global investors sought to reduce their collective risk exposure. For safety of principal, many sold some of their more aggressive positions and moved the cash proceeds into the U.S. bond market — which includes mortgage bonds.

On Wall Street, this type of trading pattern is called a “flight-to-quality”.  Because mortgage bonds are backed by U.S. government entities, the debt is considered to be ultra-safe.  Last week’s extra demand for bonds helped to push prices up and mortgage rates down.

And that was before Friday’s weak jobs report. Although the Unemployment Rate fell to 9.7%, the government reported a net loss of 98,000 jobs last month and this, too, helped mortgage rates tick lower.

This week, we’ll hope for momentum to continue.

There’s very little domestic news to move rates this week so keep an eye on the global market for similar stories like what we saw last week.  Or, if you’re not sure what to look for, just give me a call or send me an email and I’ll be happy to watch the markets and mortgage rates for you.

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But, given last week’s data and domestic story lines, it’s surprising that rates actually fell.

1. The Federal Reserve said the economy continues to strengthen
2. Consumer Confidence pushed to a 2-year high
3. 4th Quarter domestic output exceeded Wall Street’s expectations

Usually, events like these draw money away from the bond markets and into the stock markets and Wall Street preps for better corporate earnings. The movement pressures mortgage rates to rise.

Last week, however, different stories trumped the headlines including a report from Standard & Poor’s that said U.K. banks are no longer counted among the world’s most stable.  This research, in particular, triggered a flight-to-quality among investors that pumped the U.S. dollar and sparked new demand for mortgage bonds.

It’s one reason why we ended the week on a rally and it just goes to show how unpredictable mortgage rates can be.

This week figures to be a challenge, too.

First, we start the week with key inflation data.  When inflation runs hot, it’s usually bad for mortgage rates.  Inflation is expected to be tame, however — a point the Fed made several times in its press release last week.  That said, inflation data is closely watched by markets and can make a big impact on rates.

Then, on Wednesday, ADP releases its private sector job report.  The ADP data is a precursor to the government’s own Non-Farm Payrolls report which is due to hit Friday.  ADP is expected to show a net loss of roughly 85,000 jobs.  Depending on where the actual numbers comes in, mortgage rates could wiggle a bit.

If the ADP report shows much fewer than 85,000 jobs lost, expect mortgage rates to rise.  The same is true for Friday’s job report.  A miss on expectations will cause mortgage to ratchet higher.

Since peaking on the last day of December, mortgage rates took a slow, steady descent through January. They’ve have taken back close to two-thirds of December’s overall losses.  This week, rates could fall some more, or they could bounce back up.  The most prudent time to lock would be prior to Tuesday’s closing.

After that, the respective jobs reports will take over and rates could go either way with force.

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The S&P 500 shed nearly 4 percent in its worst weekly showing since October 2009 as all 10 sectors fell. As the money left stock markets, it made its way to bonds — including the mortgage-backed variety.

As a result, mortgage rates fell for the third straight week.

Since shedding 300 basis points in December, mortgage bond pricing has recovered a bit more than half of those losses.  It’s helping with home affordability and opening new refinance opportunities around the country.

This week, though, mortgage rates could rise back up.  There’s a lot going on.

First, on Monday, the December Existing Homes Sales report will be released.  The report is expected to be extremely weak as compared to November.  This is because of a combination of factors including:

1. The initial tax credit expiration date of November 30, 2009
2. Sharply rising mortgage rates throughout the month of December
3. A general slowdown from the holidays and from the weather

Therefore, don’t be surprised by the newspaper headlines you see Tuesday morning.

Other data this week includes the Case-Shiller Index – a measure of home prices nationwide — and the New Home Sales report. The Case-Shiller Index has registered mild home price improvement over the past 8 months and its latest report is expected to show the same.  New Home Sales should be similarly strong.

But, the biggest news of the week is the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2010.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week and Wall Street will be watching closely.  The Fed is not expected to change the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent, so, instead, markets will watching for the Fed’s post-meeting press release.

What the Fed says about the economy will be much more important that what it specifically does about the economy for now.  If the Fed says the economy is growing as expected, look for mortgage rates to rise. Conversely, if the Fed says the economy is at risk, expect mortgage rates to fall.

The safest rate lock strategy this week is to lock your mortgage rate before the Fed’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment Wednesday.  Rates will be bouncy all week, but once the Fed’s press release hits the wires, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen.

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Excluding motor vehicles and parts, December’s “ex-auto” sales receipts were down roughly $500 million from November. Analysts had expected receipts to grow.

The relevance of Retail Sales to home affordability isn’t obvious, but it’s definitely logical.

Retail Sales is directly related to consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy. When consumer spending slows, the economy often does, too. It leads investors to seek out “safe” investments.

It’s the reason why stock markets often drop on weak economic data — stocks are among the riskiest investment classes available.

Conversely, the best place to find safety is in the market of government-backed bonds.  This world includes products like U.S. Treasuries and many of the mortgage-backed bonds that help set mortgage rates.  Weak economic data puts mortgage bonds in demand.

For rate shopper, this is good news.  More demand for mortgage bonds causes mortgage rates to fall.  Mortgage rates are lower this morning because Wall Street is shedding some risk.

December’s Retail Sales report closes out a year of generally-weak data.  2009 marks just the second time that Retail Sales fell year-over-year since the government started tracking it 40 years ago.  The other year was 2008.

For home buyers around the country, though, today may represent an opportune time to lock a mortgage rate.  Housing data is still improving and other economic indicators are showing strength.  Soon, Wall Street will shift from a “safe” mentality and move toward risk.

When it does, mortgage rates will rise.

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The holiday-shortened trading week amplified what should have been modest gains into large ones.

Conforming mortgage rates dropped by about a quarter-percent last week, dropping them near their best levels of the year — and of all-time.

Oddly, mortgage rates are falling as the U.S. dollar weakens. This is atypical because mortgage bonds are repaid in U.S. dollars.  When the value of the dollar is falling, therefore, the value of holding mortgage bonds become less over time.

Investors are snapping up bonds with fury, however. Partially because of lingering concerns related to Dubai, and partially because of faith in the U.S. economy‘s long-term health.

This week, those beliefs could be shaken to the core — specifically because of Friday’s jobs report.

It’s no secret that the economy is growing.  Housing is improving, banks are re-capitalizing, and businesses are making capital investment.  However, employment is lagging.

More than 4 million jobs have been lost this year and the unemployment rate is north of 10 percent for the first time since 1983.  Consumers are worried for their jobs and are guarding their wallets the holiday season as a result.

The economy can’t grow without consumer spending, though, and that’s why Friday’s job figures will play an especially large role in mortgage markets. If employment data goes positive, stock markets will rally at the expense of mortgage rates.

Conversely, if data looks worse, mortgage rates should dip.

Either way, it’s a gamble.  If you haven’t looked at the benefits of a refinance lately, waiting until Friday to see what happens may be ill-advised.  This is because the last two times mortgage rates fell this low, markets corrected within 48 hours, sending rates soaring higher.

Rates look good today. Consider locking something in before rates have reason to rise.

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For the first time in a month, mortgage rates worsened last week, adding roughly 0.125 percent on conforming fixed-rate products, and a little bit more on ARMs.

Despite rates worsening, there was still some good news for home buyers and would-be refinancers. Mortgage rate volatility was markedly lower than in recent weeks.  You could shop for mortgage rate last week and actually take your time about it.

This is in stark contrast to the last month or so over which mortgage rates changed every few hours, on average.

This week, though, because a heavy data calendar is combining with a holiday-shortened trading week, rates aren’t likely to stay as tame.

• Monday: Existing Home Sales
• Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Home Price Index, Fed Minutes
• Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays

Each of these data points are market-movers by themselves. In tandem, however, they could really shake things up. Then, at the tail end of the week, markets will react to Black Friday.

If stores look full Friday and initial receipts appear high, stock markets should rise at the expense of bonds, leading mortgage rates higher.

Additionally, expect that mortgage rate changes will be amplified because of low trading volume.  This could work in your favor, or out of your favor — depending on the market direction.

With mortgage rates at such low levels and unlikely to fall much further, locking a rate is advisable. If you choose to float, though, keep your loan officer on speed dial because when rates do rise, they’re going to rise quickly.

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