The market has twenty trading sessions before the cessation of the MBS purchase program.  Traders believe that mortgage rates should increase, most noticeably in the lower coupon, current production area. At this point, besides the Fed, traders are not seeing much buying outside of some hedge funds and money managers for current coupon product. There was some hope that with the agencies buying delinquent mortgages out of pools, demand would pick up, but so far they have seen little interest in spite of the ultra-clean current production. Possibly their reinvestment decisions are now going to coincide with the end of the fed program. Much of this community is concerned with higher yields because of this and the overall macro environment. (Crisman Report 3-4)

Related posts:

1. Where Are Mortgage Rates Going In 2010? The Fed could increase the interest paid on excess bank...
2. FHA Streamline Refinance Program Updates Consider this a last call for FHA Streamline Refinances. Starting...

Luckily for rate shoppers, mortgage rate momentum was favorable. Rates were slightly lower Monday through Thursday before breaking downward Friday afternoon. Home shoppers this past weekend caught a nice break.

Last week marked the second straight week in which mortgage rates fell.

This week, in holiday-shortened trading and with little economic data set for release, expect mortgage rates to again move on momentum. The biggest report of the week is Wednesday’s Producer Price Index.

Producer Price Index is important to mortgage rates because of its role in inflation.  PPI is akin to a Cost of Living-type measurement, but for business.  As business costs rise, the thought goes, it’s not long before consumer costs rise, too. Businesses eventually pass on costs, after all.

In this manner, a rising Producer Price Index can foreshadow rising consumer prices, and, therefore, inflation.

Inflation is awful for mortgage rates.

PPI expectations have revised downward this month, especially because last week’s data showed a deceleration in consumer prices nationwide. If PPI isn’t as weak as expected, mortgage rates will rise.

Other influential data this week includes Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence and Initial Jobless Claims.

So far, 2010 has been for mortgage rates around the country. If you’re in need of a rate lock, this week may be a good time to take one.

Related posts:

1. What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 11, 2010 Mortgage rates have fallen in 4 consecutive weeks and are...
2. Mortgage Rates This Week May 17, 2010 Mortgage rates were wildly volatile between Monday and Friday before...
3. Mortgage Rates This Week : January 11, 2010 Be ready to lock at a moment's notice this week....

It’s the longest winning streak in the index’s history and the highest reading in 2-1/2 years.

It’s also another signal that the housing market is in recovery.

“Pending home sales” are a forward-looking indicator, measuring the number homes under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

Historically, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.  Most others close within 120 days.

It’s no wonder home values are rising in so many markets.

Home buyers — take note.  If you’re plan to purchase a home between now and the New Year, expect that the recent run in pending sales will turn into run of closed sales which, in turn, should pump prices up and drop home inventory.

With mortgage rates hovering near 4-month lows, the best way to find a value in housing may be to act sooner rather than later.

Related posts:

1. Was The Pending Home Sales Report Really That Bad? It Depends Who You Ask — Buyer Or Seller. On the surface, May's Pending Home Sales Index looks terrible...
2. Pending Home Sales Soar In February, As Expected. Buyers Are Everywhere. As expected, the Pending Home Sales shot higher in February,...
3. Pending Home Sales Data Shows Great Deals On Homes Are Getting Harder To Find April marks the third straight month that pending home sales...

Fed announced its plan to purchase Mortgage Backed Securities last week, and began buying them Monday. The Fed will announce the results each Thursday (This should be an interesting rate day).  The Fed is estimating 500b will be purchased. This process will continue gradually through June and should aid in pushing rates down until then. (Read between the lines, make sure your refinance or purchase before the end of July 2009, in order to take part in History) Market Forecast Week of January 5, 2009

As you can see from the chart it has not been pretty in the MBS Market. If my Technical Analysis serves me right; if we don’t fill Friday’s gap we are in trouble!

Related posts:

1. Mortgage Rates Week Of March 8, 2010 If you're waiting for the right time to lock your...

It was the fourth time in 5 weeks that mortgage rates worsened.

By far, the biggest news of last week was Wednesday’s mortgage market meltdown.

Beginning shortly after 1:00 PM ET, and in the span of about 90 minutes, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate soared.  The action was so swift that a number of mortgage lenders shut down their Lock Desks, unwilling to accept new business.

There was no “news”-like reason for the action, by the way — just a general feeling on Wall Street that the U.S. government’s massive debt load may lead to inflation sometime in the future.   As inflationary fears rise, mortgage rates often rise with them and this is what we witnessed happened Wednesday.

Markets regained their cool Thursday and Friday, but could only erase half of Wednesday’s surge.

This week, look for data to determine whether mortgage rates rise or fall.  Monday and Friday will be the biggest days.

Today in addition to releasing consumer spending data from May, the government publishes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

If Friday’s employment data is better-than-expected, rates should rise, too.  More working Americans means more consumer spending and spending makes up two-thirds of the economy.

Markets expect that another 550,000 workers lost their jobs last month, raising the 12-month total to 5.65 million.

Between Monday and Friday, a number of Federal Reserve members will be speaking publicly, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  Each speaker’s statements, of course, can influence mortgage rates as well.

Related posts:

1. Mortgage Rate Forecast Week Of November 09, 2009 (Chart) The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was extended to April...
2. Mortgage Rate Forecast Week of September 21, 2009 (Chart) Mortgage rates were down early in the week but managed...
3. Mortgage Rate Forecast Week Of October 19, 2009 (Chart) Last week was the third consecutive week that mortgage rates...

This week we saw the economy shed 539,000 jobs in April, raising the 6-month total to nearly 4 million jobs lost.

And while the April data may look bad, it’s actually 10% better than what was expected.

Now, it may seem odd to categorize 539-thousand lost jobs as “good-for-the-economy”, but it’s important to remember that on Wall Street, expectations are everything.

As it turns out — relative — the actual job loss data wasn’t so bad.

Now, markets are making adjustments and re-forming expectations of what’s ahead for the economy.  They’re preparing for things like higher levels of consumer spending in the months ahead, and fewer home foreclosures nationwide.  Both outcomes would help to spur the economy from recession.

Other economic data included the second consecutive month, the number of homes under contract to sell increased — further evidence that housing markets may have already bottomed.

As reported by an industry trade association, the Pending Home Sales Index rose by 3-plus percent last month.

A “pending” home is one that’s under contract but has yet to close.  This is one reason why the Pending Home Sales Index is an imperfect statistic.

Just because a home is under contract doesn’t mean it will actually sell.  A lot can go wrong between the date of agreement and the date of closing.  Deals fall apart all the time.  But, when the number of pending contracts rises, we can infer that buy-side demand for homes is strong.

It’s likely that the number of homes under contract is being influenced by a combination of low mortgage rates, relatively inexpensive homes, and various tax credits for certain homebuyers.  Overall, it’s spurring demand and that’s part of what’s captured by the Pending Home Sales Index.

So long as the demand for homes outpaces its supply, home prices are expected to rise.

No related posts.

Early in the week, there’s not much data to sway markets, nor is there much in the way of public policy.  Therefore, expect external factors like the Swine Flu to dictate the market’s path.  If the outbreak’s intensity grows, look for Safe Haven to lower rates much like it did last Monday.

Also, be aware and listen for Stress Test rumors.

Thursday, the government is expected to release its bank Stress Test results.  However, history shows that markets often make large movements before news is ever official — mostly on rumors. As a result, expect mortgage markets to carve out wide ranges on Tuesday and Wednesday in advance of the reports, making it very hard to “time” low mortgage rates.

And lastly, Friday brings us April’s employment data.  There’s nothing the report can show us that we don’t already know so the biggest risk here is that employment is not as bad as we all expect it to be.

If that’s the case, stock markets will rally and mortgage rates will rise.

Like always, mortgage markets can change in an instant — especially when there’s outside influences on “normal” trading like we’re seeing with Swine Flu and the Stress Test.  If you’re offered a rate and it fits your budget, consider locking right away.  It may not last long.

No related posts.

This is the TRUE meaning of Lipstick on a Pig!  It is sad how BIG Marketing dollars can convince millions that you have a great Knowledgeable staff.

Country Wide slung tons of high priced/rate loans, and consumers ate it up.  I always shake my head in disbelief when potential client tell me “I am going to go with Country Wide”.  I do bask in the joy when I meet clients who tell me “My Last Loan was with Country Wide and it was nothing like they promised”.

Layer that Lipstick on and
Caveat Emptor

And so over the weekend, nearly 10 months after the Bank of America deal closed, Countrywide Home Loans signs came down and Bank of America Home Loans signs appeared at the lender’s 215 storefront offices in California. It was the start of a rebranding of nearly 1,300 Countrywide mortgage offices nationwide. (read full story)

Image: http://www.flickr.com/photos/brent_nashville/240072751/

Related articles by Zemanta

• Bank of America lets go of Countrywide name (money.cnn.com)

Related posts:

1. Underwriting Hurdles Increase Banks Raise Mortgage Qualification Standards In other words, mortgage rates may stay low into 2010,...
2. Mortgage Approvals Are Getting More And More Scarce if you're on the fence about whether now is a...

Although the FED announced to keep the FED Funds target unchanged, MBS gave up ground with the 30 YR FNMA 4.0% pulling back 22bp.  Mortgage Rates held their ground and closed where they ended yesterday.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.  The Fed also reiterated its plan to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the economy may still be contracting, but that it’s not happening with the same speed as in prior months.  Household spending is stabilizing and financial markets are “easing”.

Nevertheless, threats to the recovery are everywhere with the following items on the Fed’s short list:

• The growing ranks of unemployed workers
• The reduction of housing wealth nationally
• Reduced inventories and investment from business

Furthermore, the FOMC fingered today’s inflation levels as too low to support economic growth.  This justifies the Fed’s plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is June 23-24, 2009.

Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
April 29, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-fedparse0904.html

Related posts:

1. The Federal Reserve Statement (November 4, 2009 Edition) (Video) The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the...
2. Mortgage Rates Spike On The Federal Reserve’s January 2010 Meeting Minutes Mortgage markets reeled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released the...

For active home buyers who have yet to find the “right home”, long-term flatness like this is terrific.  While interest rates stay even, buyer purchasing power holds flat and pre-approval letters stay valid.

For buyers under contract or homeowners looking to refinance, though, the market’s pattern is a little more rough.  Although rates are holding steady week-to-week, the day-to-day action is quite different.  Bond markets are volatile and rate swings of a quarter-percent in a day have been common.

How good of a rate you get depends on day on which you shop. This complicates the process of “locking a rate” and makes it very hard for people trying to time a market bottom.

This week, though, the market may finally make a run and break its range.

Aside from it being an unusually data-heavy week, the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss monetary policy.  The data combined with the Fedspeak may push the markets one way or the other towards economic optimism or pessimism for the latter half of 2009.

Lately, it’s been a combination of the two — a “cautious optimism” — and that’s a big reason why mortgage rates have held in a tight range for so long.

Understand, though, that when mortgage rates finally do move, they’re going to move in a big way.  So, if you’re among the crowd looking for lower rates, the best possible outcomes you can hope for this week are:

• Weak consumer confidence data (Tuesday, Friday)
• Weak consumer spending data (Thursday)
• Falling “cost of living” calculations (Thursday)
• Fed concerns about deflation and/or recession (Wednesday)

Any of these four events would likely temper hope for a quick economic revival, sending mortgage rates lower.  On the other hand, if confidence or spending is strong, or the Fed has no regard for deflation or recession, expect mortgage rates to rise.

No related posts.