We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets as well as citywide markets , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

• Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
• Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
• Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports.  As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.

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Please take the time to watch and try to understand!

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image: © theFinancials.com

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Although the FED announced to keep the FED Funds target unchanged, MBS gave up ground with the 30 YR FNMA 4.0% pulling back 22bp.  Mortgage Rates held their ground and closed where they ended yesterday.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.  The Fed also reiterated its plan to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the economy may still be contracting, but that it’s not happening with the same speed as in prior months.  Household spending is stabilizing and financial markets are “easing”.

Nevertheless, threats to the recovery are everywhere with the following items on the Fed’s short list:

• The growing ranks of unemployed workers
• The reduction of housing wealth nationally
• Reduced inventories and investment from business

Furthermore, the FOMC fingered today’s inflation levels as too low to support economic growth.  This justifies the Fed’s plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is June 23-24, 2009.

Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
April 29, 2009

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-fedparse0904.html

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For active home buyers who have yet to find the “right home”, long-term flatness like this is terrific.  While interest rates stay even, buyer purchasing power holds flat and pre-approval letters stay valid.

For buyers under contract or homeowners looking to refinance, though, the market’s pattern is a little more rough.  Although rates are holding steady week-to-week, the day-to-day action is quite different.  Bond markets are volatile and rate swings of a quarter-percent in a day have been common.

How good of a rate you get depends on day on which you shop. This complicates the process of “locking a rate” and makes it very hard for people trying to time a market bottom.

This week, though, the market may finally make a run and break its range.

Aside from it being an unusually data-heavy week, the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss monetary policy.  The data combined with the Fedspeak may push the markets one way or the other towards economic optimism or pessimism for the latter half of 2009.

Lately, it’s been a combination of the two — a “cautious optimism” — and that’s a big reason why mortgage rates have held in a tight range for so long.

Understand, though, that when mortgage rates finally do move, they’re going to move in a big way.  So, if you’re among the crowd looking for lower rates, the best possible outcomes you can hope for this week are:

• Weak consumer confidence data (Tuesday, Friday)
• Weak consumer spending data (Thursday)
• Falling “cost of living” calculations (Thursday)
• Fed concerns about deflation and/or recession (Wednesday)

Any of these four events would likely temper hope for a quick economic revival, sending mortgage rates lower.  On the other hand, if confidence or spending is strong, or the Fed has no regard for deflation or recession, expect mortgage rates to rise.

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Overall rates remain low for the time being, thanks to the FEDs Subsidy Suppression program.  The FED continued its weekly protocol purchase of Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program.

Gross purchases from April 9 through April 15: $30,400 million
Net purchases from April 9 through April 15: $21,750 million

With respect to housing data, news is rarely positive or negative on a universal level. There’s always two perspectives to consider, after all.

1. The home buyer’s perspective
2. The home seller’s perspective

Usually, when data is beneficial to one group, it’s less beneficial to the other.  This is true for rising home prices, average days on market and so forth.

Today, the group that gets the most benefit from data is the home seller group.

Published Thursday, a government report showed that Housing Starts fell 11 percent nationwide in March and also fell short of analyst expectations.  A “Housing Start” is a new housing unit on which construction has started.

The press is calling this a stumbling block for the economy, but that’s not exactly true.

Fewer Housing Starts last month means that fewer new homes will come on the market later this year.  This is not necessarily bad news.  Especially if you’re planning to sell your home in the latter half of the year.  With fewer homes for sale, the supply-and-demand curve should shift in favor of home sellers.  This helps stabilize home prices at a time when they might otherwise be prone to fall.

If it’s true that stable housing markets are key in an economic recovery, then fewer Housing Starts is actually a push in the right direction.

But there’s more to the story (as always).

As footnoted in the Commerce Department‘s report, a statistical disclaimer states that the Housing Starts data’s Margin of Error was so high that the report’s conclusion is just a guess.  Technically, the entire report is invalid anyway

So, the government won’t issue its final March 2009 Housing Starts data for months, but if the initial figures stick, home sellers may be in position to command higher sale prices later this year to the detriment of home buyers.  It’s basic economics.

And from a home seller’s perspective, that news is good.

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The very first created was www.Prosper.com, which has been shut down by the SEC, allowed individuals to borrow and lend small amounts of money, for any variety of purposes. Posts include families wanting to start a small business and a father seeking to pay off his son’s medical bills. You can see their pictures and read their stories.

The maximum loan amount was $25,000, and lenders could loan as little as $50 towards someone’s total desired loan amount, and determine what rate they are willing to lend at based on the individual’s credit standing and risk profile. Prosper encouraged lenders to fund small amounts towards many individuals’ loans, to help minimize risk of default.

Another similar site is www.Zopa.com, also a social lending site but with a few key differences. If a borrower’s request is approved, Zopa funds it directly, raising funds by offering Certificates of Deposit (CD) to be purchased with attractive rates of return. If you purchase a CD, you are required to choose at least one borrower request to sponsor. By sponsoring a borrower you marginally reduce the interest rate earned on your CD, which in turn is used to reduce the rate that the borrower is paying. Best of all, your money and your rate of return are guaranteed and insured.

Perhaps the most intriguing of the social lending sites, www.Kiva.org is a blend of charitable giving and online lending. This site specializes in very small loans made to individuals in third-world countries. The loan requests and photos are fascinating. Who knew that a cow could be purchased for only $500, or that you could literally purchase tons of coffee and cocoa for $1,000? The downside to Kiva is that the loan is not repaid with interest, and because it is a loan and not a charitable contribution, it is not tax deductible. But the upside – helping those in developing countries create and expand their businesses, provide for their families and improve their countries’ economies as a whole – well, this offers a substantial rate of return, just of a different type.

And consider getting your kids involved. Parents can use sites like these to help instill a sense of giving back, as well as a broader view of the economic world. Start with a small amount of money, and let them decide who to lend it to and why. When the loan is repaid, turn around and lend it again. It’s never too early to get kids involved in the process of understanding money, lending, and the world around them as a whole.

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In some case, after touching all-time lows, conforming mortgage rates added a half-percent in the second half of the week, ruining some homeowners’ chance to refinance.

It was the second week in a row that mortgage rates worsened.

One reason why mortgage rates are up is because investors are turning bullish on the economy, even as it sputters.

From investors’ perspective, the data is weak, but not as weak as it has been — or could have been.  It’s a glass-is-half-full approach and it’s the opposite of how Wall Street worked in 2008.

For example, from last week:

1. Consumer Confidence measured a paltry 26.0 — but the reading was up from February’s all-time lows
2. The Case-Shiller Index showed a big drop in home prices — but the report ignores strong housing data from the last 60 days
3. Unemployment rates reached 8.5 percent nationally — but employment is a lagging indicator for the economy

In time, we’ll learn whether investors were on-time or premature in their bets for an economic turnaround but, for now, the mere belief that the economy is improving is leading mortgage rates higher.  And until Wall Street’s sentiment changes, rates should continue in that direction.

This week, there won’t be much chance to change traders’ minds.  For one, it’s a holiday-shortened week.  Secondly, there’s just one release of importance to markets — Wednesday’s release of the March Fed Minutes.

Mortgage rates may not rise for the third week in a row this week but long-term momentum is working against rate shoppers.  If you see a rate you like, consider locking it.  Before long, it might be gone.

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Individuals who probably should have been looking for a job today decide they would use their resources to protest on Wall Street.  Don’t blame Wall Street when you miss out that job opportunity, you made to choice to be an activist vs. being a proactive job hunter.  I am glad we haven’t reached the egocentric self entitlement mind frame as Europe.  Destroying private property and trapping CEOs angry mob style is extremely civilized and is a sure fire way to a resolution, I believe this is considered No Cost Decision Making!

The week of April 3, 2009 Mortgage Rate Chart.

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