The first week of May is officially over, and Mortgage backed securities once again sold off at the end of the week giving up a total of 30bp this week (FNMA 30 YR 4% Chart). The selloff pushed Mortgage Rates higher for the first week of May. May 2009 Mortgage Rates.

This week we saw the economy shed 539,000 jobs in April, raising the 6-month total to nearly 4 million jobs lost.

And while the April data may look bad, it’s actually 10% better than what was expected.

Now, it may seem odd to categorize 539-thousand lost jobs as “good-for-the-economy”, but it’s important to remember that on Wall Street, expectations are everything.

As it turns out — relative — the actual job loss data wasn’t so bad.

Now, markets are making adjustments and re-forming expectations of what’s ahead for the economy.  They’re preparing for things like higher levels of consumer spending in the months ahead, and fewer home foreclosures nationwide.  Both outcomes would help to spur the economy from recession.

Other economic data included the second consecutive month, the number of homes under contract to sell increased — further evidence that housing markets may have already bottomed.

As reported by an industry trade association, the Pending Home Sales Index rose by 3-plus percent last month.

A “pending” home is one that’s under contract but has yet to close.  This is one reason why the Pending Home Sales Index is an imperfect statistic.

Just because a home is under contract doesn’t mean it will actually sell.  A lot can go wrong between the date of agreement and the date of closing.  Deals fall apart all the time.  But, when the number of pending contracts rises, we can infer that buy-side demand for homes is strong.

It’s likely that the number of homes under contract is being influenced by a combination of low mortgage rates, relatively inexpensive homes, and various tax credits for certain homebuyers.  Overall, it’s spurring demand and that’s part of what’s captured by the Pending Home Sales Index.

So long as the demand for homes outpaces its supply, home prices are expected to rise.

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