Market Forecast Week of January 5, 2009

Market Forecast Week of January 5, 2009

The first official week of 2009 is upon us.

For the sake of Homeowners looking to refinance, I hope rates perform better than they did last week. On Friday of last week MBS gave up 37bp closing down 101.15 on the FNMA 30 YR 4.5%, pushing rates to the lowest point of 2009.

This week is light on economic data, there’s only four high impact data point to watch, with the main one being Friday’s jobs report. Economists are predicting another 500,000.00 Americans lost their jobs in December and that the Unemployment Rate reached will 7.0 percent.

Fed announced its plan to purchase Mortgage Backed Securities last week, and began buying them Monday. The Fed will announce the results each Thursday (This should be an interesting rate day).  The Fed is estimating 500b will be purchased. This process will continue gradually through June and should aid in pushing rates down until then. (Read between the lines, make sure your refinance or purchase before the end of July 2009, in order to take part in History)
The Fed will release the December 16 minutes Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET this should highlight the Feds true outlook and view on the U.S. economy.

Monday was another prime example as to why the 10 YR Treasury does not dictate mortgage rates. The 10-YR Treasury closed down 97bp pushing the yield up .11 to 2.48, while MBS closed up 37bp to 101.53.

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Wed. January 07

10:30

Crude Inventories

1/02

NA

-465K

Moderate

Thu. January 08

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

1/03

NA

492K

Moderate

Fri. January 09

08:30

Non-farm Payrolls

Dec

-475K

-533K

HIGH

Fri. January 09

08:30

Average Work Week

Dec

33.5

33.5

HIGH

Fri. January 09

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Dec

0.2%

0.4%

HIGH

Fri. January 09

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Dec

7.0%

6.7%

HIGH

Mortgage Rates 1/5/2009

Mortgage Rates 1/5/2009

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

No related posts.

No Comments »

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment