Market Forecast Week of November 24, 2008

Market Forecast Week of November 24, 2008

Citibank N.A.

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It’s a holiday-shortened week. Fewer traders will be working as the week moves forward, making the Price Discovery process more difficult. With fewer active buyers and sellers, wild price swings are likely and mortgage rates should feel the impact.

Markets will debate the Citigroup Bailout, wondering whether this will (finally) mark the market bottom. It’s a conversation about which Wall Street never tires and with each bit of optimism, money should flow into stocks to the detriment of mortgage bonds and mortgage rates.

There are 9 economic releases crammed into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week, including two housing reports and an inflationary gauge behind which the Fed puts a lot of credence.

Signs of stabilization should buoy both stock markets and mortgage rates — Wall Street is craving balance of some sort to carry it into the New Year.

There are no Fed speakers scheduled for this week so watch for data and market sentiment to lead the markets. For rate shoppers, this means more rate sheets.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 24 – November 28

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. November 24
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Oct
5.05M
4.98M
5.14M
Moderate
Tue. November 25
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q3
4.2%
4.2%
Moderate
Tue. November 25
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q3
-0.6%
-0.3%
Moderate
Tue. November 25
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Nov
39.5
38.0
Moderate
Wed. November 26
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
2.2%
HIGH
Wed. November 26
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Oct
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Wed. November 26
08:30
Personal Spending
Oct
-0.7%
-0.3%
Moderate
Wed. November 26
08:30
Personal Income
Oct
0.1%
0.2%
Moderate
Wed. November 26
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/22
NA
542K
Moderate
Wed. November 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Oct
-2.5%
0.8%
Moderate
Wed. November 26
09:45
Chicago PMI
Nov
38.5
27.8
Moderate
Wed. November 26
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Nov
58.0
57.9
Moderate
Wed. November 26
10:00
New Home Sales
Oct
450K
464K
Moderate
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